December 12, 1999

Subject: Y2Kaos #1: Oil Supply May Fail Drastically - Late January -- Part 1

Hello everyone

I'm working hard to prepare my Y2K perspective for you - amidst many other things I have to do. I'll send it tomorrow. With nearly two weeks left before the Y2Kaos begins, it is high time I pass on to you *some* of the material I've set aside for your attention. Please keep in mind as you wade through this unappetizing information -- after all, who likes to entertain the thought that civilization as we know it is perhaps about to enter a very turbulent patch? -- that despite the tribulations many will have to endure, this could very well be the needed experience humanity needs to shift to a higher spiritual gear.

Back with more tomorrow

Jean Hudon
Earth Rainbow Network Coordinator
http://www.cybernaute.com/earthconcert2000

FOR THOSE NEW ON THE Earth Rainbow Network E-LIST, HERE ARE THE WEBPAGES FOR Y2K-RELATED MATERIAL FROM PREVIOUS POST ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE ERN SITE:

Are you Y2K Ready?
http://www.cybernaute.com/earthconcert2000/AreyouY2KReady.htm

Feedbacks about the right use of our spiritual Light + World Atomic Safety Holiday
http://www.cybernaute.com/earthconcert2000/FeedbksLightWASH.htm

More Y2K material for your perusal - The bug that just won't go away
http://www.cybernaute.com/earthconcert2000/MoreY2Kmaterial.htm

The Scare Tactics That Will Backfire
http://www.cybernaute.com/earthconcert2000/ScareTactics.htm

The Coming Y2K Global Disaster and Opportunity For Change
http://www.cybernaute.com/earthconcert2000/ComingY2Kdisaster.htm

Humanitarian/War Crisis in East Timor and Some Y2K Updates
http://www.cybernaute.com/earthconcert2000/EastTimorY2K.htm

The Pentagon Papers on Y2K about the coming World Crisis
http://www.cybernaute.com/earthconcert2000/PentagonY2K.htm

The Y2K Challenge
http://www.cybernaute.com/earthconcert2000/Y2KChallenge.htm




Date: Sat, 11 Dec 1999
From: Art b Rosenblum <artr@juno.com>
Subject: Oil Supply May Fail Drastically - Late January

Dear Friends,

The last part of this was sent out to many of you before. It's the
so-called "oil chat" that Irv Thomas of Seattle forwarded to us. We know
Irv personally. Eric refers to it and you can read it again at the end of
this post.

I think I now understand the situation we are in and how difficult it
may be. The first part (below) comes from Eric who has been checking out
the "oil chat" with others in the petroleum industry. I found what he had
to say so shocking that I sent it on to an old friend (25 + years) who
has some long experience in the oil industry but is now long retired. He
is a Quaker and lives in a land trust community going since the 40's.

Eric writes:

Karl Wolf (friend of Marc Gimbrere) and CHIEF ENGINEER FOR ARCO GAS for
10 years (HE DESIGNED AND MANAGED THE INSTALLATION OF EMBEDDED SYSTEMS IN
REFINERIES HERE AND ABROAD) and has been in the industry for 20 years,
confirmed the scenario in the "oil chat" email as very possible. He also
said:

"No one (in this industry) is putting out accurate information any more,
it's impossible.

"When I was at Chevron site in Manhattan Beach, they said they were
shutting down at the end of the year. There are a lot of other refineries doing
same. Chevron is having problems world wide. ARCO and EXXON are
shutting down the two major international pipelines."

"The least of my concerns are oil and chemical, main concern is nuclear
reactors. The same embedded systems used in the refineries are used at
the nuke plants. The whole northern hemisphere is going to be exposed to
radiation."

"Gulf is announcing they are shutting down overseas as non-compliant."

Thats the jist of it. I cut a few pieces. wWhat do you think?

WELL, ERIC, I thought this was too serious to post without some checking
of my own. I wanted to know what it would mean if refineries were shut
down before 1/1/2000, so I asked and got this answer: (-Art)

Subject: Hazard of Embedded Systems

During my 19 years at Houdry and 10 years at Arco, I was in ... departments, and thus not directly involved in either the contruction or operation of chemical plants, petroleum refineries, pipelines,etc. I attend annual alumni meetings of Houdry Process, where there are many engineers who actually built and started up dozzens of plants. Even 18 years ago, when I retired, many of the intrumentation engineers preferred the air pressure systems, and the all-electronic instrumentation advocates were still campaigning against the air pressure advocated on the basis of ease of making repairs.

Even if only one per cent of the plants which have Y2K problems, the difficulties which could occur where Y2K proved troublesome could stimulate panic reactions because everyone is aware of how critically dependant the public is upon the availability of gasoline. Just knowing that various pipe-lines and refineries are closing down for 1-1-00 could stimulate panic hoarding, even if more than 99% of the plants had no problems on restarting about 1-3-00. All plants are normally shut down and restarted at least once per year. Some crews specialize on such re-start-ups, so that shut downs are normally staggered to better utilize such specialists. An industry wide shut-down and fresh start-up is of itself an unprecedented hazard, because tiny misjudgments in start-up can be very costly, and destroy a plant. The hazards of having plants started-up without control by sufficiently experienced "start-uppers" might be almost as hazordous, and on a global scale, as any embedded chip problems. Before June of 2000, the petroleum industry is likely to report millions of dollars of losses attributable to Y2K, of which possibly only a small portion will be DIRECTLY traceable to the embedded chip problems.

Simultaneous shutting down of all airlines, and restoring service on a flight by flight basis may inconvenience a few travellers, but does not involve the hazards inherent in closing down most pipe lines and most refineries and having a plant by plant re-start-up.

Many refineries had a gradual shiftover from air pressure instrumentation to electronic instrumentation. Some of the process controls for the plant using air pressure instrumentation were of an electronic, computer-type which might come within the embedded chip hazard.

I do not have the technical backgroound to be able to "confirm" Karl Wolf, particularly when I do not know what was said in the "oil chat" discussion, and hence do not know what Wolf was confirming. Because it concerns the embedded chip problem, and because the probabilities are reasonably strong that by June of 2000 there will be confirmation that a petroleum industry facility had millions of dollars of problems in coping with some embedded chip problem, there appears to be a reasonable basis for giving wider publicity to Karl Wolf's conclusions. I am willing to provide a "person to person" comment concerning this matter. I have generally maintained a low profile concerning Y2K, and expect to continue to do so, and hence do not want my name, or my status ...

Arco identified with the Wolf diagnosis.


THAT'S IT FROM MY FRIEND. NOW THIS IS THE "OIL CHAT" which started it
all. It's long, so I'll first give my reason for sending it out to you so
you can decide if you want to read further.

After hearing this, we talked by phone and my friend said that the
problem is that there are only a small number of folks able to re-start a
refinery without extreme risk. Orinarily refineries are only shut down
when those folks are available for scheduled restart.

But if many or most shut down at years' end, those people will not be
available for so many (thousands, he said) re-starts. Additionally, if
they run into embedded chip problems which are much more time consuming
than ordinary re-starts, their schedules will be greatly delayed and the
some systems could be out for months.

It's been said that if the electric power grids went down for 30 days
they may never restart ! That's because so much else would go wrong
during that time that it would be hard to bring back together the folks
that could restart it. Few power plants can do a "black start", that is
start up when no grid power is available. So, that creates further
uncertainty.

In short, we may really have "painted ourselves into a corner" with so
much interdependent hi-tech systems, and it may turn out that our entire
cultural system is not really a viable one. That's one of the reasons I
was not personally very busy with the WTO protest as I saw the whole
thing as likely to fail for reasons the protesters never even considered.

Oil is essential to our entire economy. If it is true as indicated that
our imported oil may drop by as much as 60%, or even the more likely 40%,
that could be extremely rough for our economy and even our survival.

The recent U.S. government warning of a 40% increase in oil prices this
winter is nothing compared to that. Recall that the last "oil crisis" was
due to only a small drop (DD says 7%) in available oil.

So a 40 - 60% drop could be horrendous for the economy, stock market,
food supplies, energy, the electric grid, and as indicate even the
problem of cooling spent rods at nuclear plants. If not cooled, these
could melt down and release massive radiation.

No one really knows for certain, but there is reason to drop all other
concerns and start getting ready for a very difficult time. That is one
reason we moved from Phila. to a cooperative community in the mild,
water-secure Northwest.

It's also a reason I suggest that each of you send for this list a 100
word introduction telling folks where you are and who you would like to
be close to. You can ask for a resend of that post or phone me for info.
at the number below. The "oil chat" will follow.

Peace and Love, Art Rosenblum

Aquarian Research 14724 184th St. NE, Arlington, WA 98223
Working together for positive future, tax exempt since 1970.
Website: http://www.ic.org/aq (Phone: 360-403-9533 PST)

Now here is the intro by Irv Thomas to the "Oil Chat":

The Y2K circuit is buzzing, about this. It's from a chat line called Oil
Chat, and it center's on a woman named DD, who says she's been an oil rig
and oil field consultant for 30 years, and gives us some really heavy
duty information about what she thinks we can expect from that situation.
I find her credible, as a person - though, of course, I have no knowledge
of the field.

But there is more to the stuff that is circulating, than this one
chat...there's also another, twice as long as this, which is a multi-
dialogue between a dozen or more with varying degrees of actual oil rig
experience, debating the pros and cons of what she is saying...and while
it is never fully resolved, she has quite a bit of support among them.
(I've been unable to locate that longer chat. -Art)

If she is right, about the frequently touted oil reserves in this country
amounting to hardly anything at all, and the potential reduction of
available oil by as much as 60 to 70%, BEFORE THE MONTH OF JANUARY IS OUT
-- if she is only halfway right! -- then all the other work toward
remediation is not going to save this country from a really huge crash,
and well before springtime. This sits BEHIND the condition of the power
grid, just as the power grid sits behind the compliance of every other
part of the infrastructure. It is surely something we need to think
about, as we make our own plans for coping with it.

The following captured discussion is, how shall I say it, not hard news.
It is opinion, and the opinion of a doomer at that. Nevertheless, it has
an internal integrity that impresses me. It appears to me to be INSIDER
discussion. It is the sort of thing that helps shape and direct my
thinking. BUT, it is not the type of thing that I usually broadly share.
HOWEVER, a number of people with whom I have shared this think that I
should share it more broadly. It came to me as a secondary source of an
edited version of a chat Jon Hylands participated in Oct 26. AND I have
edited it further.

Many, many months ago I wrote an article saying how Gas and Oil are the
SMOKING GUN of Y2K, and so this sort of thing still comes to me. To me,
this verifies my position further. But you must remember the following
discussion reflects the views of a doomer. Selection of a discussion by a
polly (pollyana type) could give you quite different views.

My source reports that Jon Hylands has had private conversations with DD
and can vouch that she is for real and that she also had a private
conversation Greg Caton (who had a two hour phone conversation with DD)
and agrees with what is reported here.




(That much from Irv Thomas, our Seattle friend -Art R.)

(Allaha) DD, tell us about your background.

(DD) I am a top problem solver/facilitator in the oil/gas industry so
have a broader picture than most in my industry. Have been working with
some large independents (none of the 'public' companies will admit or do
much) that are doing what they can to ensure as large an output as they
can.

(Ryker) How's things in the oil industry?

(DD) Actually I am working on a job that is geared to propane, so it
feels good to be doing things that will actually aid these problems. I am
in Corpus Christi right now. None of the work I am doing is close enough
to my home to help us out, but it will aid some.

(Ryker) I've heard conflicting reports on oil supply. One person says
there's a 6 month supply stored up in US. Other reports I've heard say
about 30 days. Which is right?

(DD) Neither. The 'strategic petroleum reserve' is a bit of a myth. It
is very poor grade and the ability to pump it out and then refine it is
very limited. There is about a 3 1/4 day supply of refined product
available in the system in normal times.

(Hylands) Since the SPR is stored in caverns, I would suspect
contamination problems.

(Ryker) So, the claim of 6 month supply stored up is WAY off base?

(DD) Well, it is MAYBE 6 months of very limited basic usage, but it would
take a couple of years to get it out, transport, refine, etc. so it is
basically a myth. We have deep problems some of which are not fixable -
period

(Ryker) The reserve is not for public use, just for military, power
plants, and distribution of essential goods?

(DD) Generally but even that would be improbable at best. After January,
public use - even rationed - is out of the question given the short
supply.

(Hylands) That would spiral into an economic collapse so fast it
wouldn't be funny.

(Ryker) I know... Think we're headed for that anyway...

(DD) I see absolutely no way that economy will not fall very flat on
its face. Remember, that at the very worst in the 70's "oil crisis" we
were dealing with a 7% reduction in availability. I will be jumping up
and down if my industry can supply 45% of today's refined product, (and
remember that is only about 40% at best of our daily usage at present)

(jcollins) How would this affect the local production of oil? Booming
times for local crude?

(DD) Local crude is in deep trouble, problems down hole not possible to
fix, then have to get to refineries (which are band-aided to pieces as it
is) then distribution etc. But some of the biggest problems are that we
have few 1 for 1 replacement chips. So we have to re-blueprint DAB's etc.
and that takes many long months most times

(Ryker) And chip plants are overseas which involves other problems

(y2kworried) So, it sounds like it will take a long time to get oil
production back.

(DD) That's right. There are no quick fixes for lots of things

(Hylands) If it takes more than a few weeks to get it back, I don't think
it's going to happen at all

(DD) Lots of power companies are stocking 2 to 4 weeks of fuel so we
don't expect most problems to become critical until 3rd week of January.
For the first time in my life I find myself agreeing with the Dept of
Defense. They are figuring contingencies on 30% availability of today's
supply of oil and gas.

(Hylands) Susie, any new news on the Fed Reserve dude?

(susie0884) The guy, who retired from the Fed, was planning to spend the
winter in the Northern mountains. Will be there before Nov. and to get
out of DC where he is presently. Who goes to MT or ID for the winter?

(DD) People for the most part are so terrified of it crashing that
they will and are doing lots in hopes they can keep it afloat etc.
Remember that half of all American households are invested in the stock
market or commodities and most of them are hip deep in debt to boot.
Amazing the number who have taken out home equity loans and used all or
part to invest in the market. Scary

(GregCaton) I have been getting reports this week about likely
disruptions in oil supply, mostly foreign. I got a call this morning from
a good friendin San Antonio who has a business associate (retired
full-bird colonel from Navy) who has been overseas recently and confirms
that very little remediation is being done where it needs to be in oil.

(DD) Well, foreign has big troubles but not much worse than our own, I
am sorry to say

(TymeNTide) My company in Alabama has about 1000 employees, in my case.
not more than 10 compliant computers in the entire biz..... still
"working on it".....

(DD) sounds about right from what I am getting from buddies who are still
overseas (most of which have come on home already). The best we can
figure is 26% to 34% of today's availability, sorry wish it was better
news. If oil production is over 40% I will be dancing in the street. I am
looking for a minimum 60% drop in availability. Anyone want to hear a
true story?

(Hylands) Sure, DD1

(DD) The 3rd week of July last year Mobil Oil got their 'analysis' for
remediation. It was $460 Million + and over 3 1/2 years. They came back 2
weeks later and asked for a new analysis with differing base criteria.
About 6 weeks later they did a 'merger' with Exxon, remember? 11 majors
have since done similar things and the number of filings to reorganize
into limited liability companies and partnerships is amazing. The majors
are joining and the front companies will fold under and the back up
companies will reestablish when they can. Why would an industry let
itself start the big problems now when they can cash in for however many
months they can? Like Exxon front, Mobil back etc. The back up companies
are taking the cash and will start again under new names when they can.

(GregCaton) Is this to avoid the effects of litigation? Distinguish
between front and back companies.

(Dean--DuhMoyn) Do they think deflation will cause all prices to drop, so
a long is a big gamble?

(DD) To take a "long" you have to figure there will be enough to go
around somehow. This move is for litigation and the surety that they will
fail on supply contracts. Remember they have had experience at being made
the "bad-guy" to the American public. They learned well.

(GregCaton) But with something like this, no one can believe that there
is a basis to single out oil companies and make them a whipping boy.

Want a whipping boy for Y2K? Microsoft is a far more likely candidate.
>From a supply / demand situation... what is the basis for thinking that
there will be a deflation in oil anytime soon?

(DD) Supply has deep problems. Our refineries are some of the oldest and
nastiest there are and we have been unable to build new ones in this
country for many years now. They are band-aided to the max now.
Remediation for most is next to impossible. It is MUCH cheaper to build
new when they can.

(GregCaton) Yes, DD, but you are assuming that the laws of supply and
demand will go out the window

(DD) Nope, supply and demand are basic but when the supply falls so far
below even the minimal demand, people will get very angry. We had this
situation in the past.

(Hylands) So, does the govt know this, or are the oil companies lying to
them?

(DD) Read the Senate 100 day Y2K report, go to the utilities section.
http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001eAu and
look at the part about oil/gas, and pay close attention to how they got
their numbers

(GregCaton) Explain.

(DD) 8000+ letters sent to producers and only got back 450+ answers.
Not many, so they just decided to use the 66 companies that they saw as
most major and still their scenarios are a bit daunting. They tried to
put a good face on it even then.

(GregCaton) When will the problem get out of control?

(DD) Expecting things to get sticky big time around the 3rd week of
January.

(GregCaton) Is there a probability curve here? Or are you speaking with
surety?

(DD) I have spent a good bit of time for the last 10 years gathering
solid date, good math from my industry where possible. I like good
numbers and want them to be verifiable in at least 2 ways; 3 is better. I
would say this is real. The best I can come up with is 26 to 34% of
current supply, optimistically 46

%(GregCaton) Is there anyone here who doesn't believe that if we had 60%
drop in oil for 30 days, that we wouldn't be (a la Howard Ruff) at 2,000
Dow in 2000 ?

(Hylands) If it lasts for 30 days, it's all over

(Ryker`) Greg, if we have a 60% drop in oil for 30 days, the stock
market won't be around any more...

(GregCaton) it will be around. Dormant, perhaps. Even under 2,000
points... but still around

(DD1stLight) I am trying to be optimistic, am hoping for 40%
availability of today's supplies being available

(underpaid) Loss of oil flow - candling of pipelines - problems with
tankers/ports - VERRRRY SERIOUS - End of economy PERIOD.

(Tulladew) Gasoline might be expensive, even if rationed

(DD) Rationed assumes there will be enough for basic services with some
left over. These amounts are not sufficient for basic services etc. I
expect nationalization at the least

(DD) Can anyone here think of a single industry that is not wholly or
secondarily reliant upon the oil/gas industry? Refineries take several
years to build even at critical speed, pipelines the same, wells take a
while too etc.

(GregCaton) How long have you held these convictions, as to
percentages, time line, etc ?

(DD1stLight) Greg, the first time I jumped up and down in a corporate
board room about Y2K was in 1976. I started gathering serious data about
8 years ago as I saw little being done still about my industry
specifically

(GregCaton) What caused you to be so concerned in 76 ?

(DD) I needed to input 1800's info into the computers and could not.

(GregCaton) 1800's info? Why?

(DD) My industry pays people who own the land/mineral interests according
to the % the own so is very important, also for getting the rights by
lease to explore for oil/gas etc. Deeds and court suits from the 1800's
are many times still in effect today.

(Ryker`) Can I try to summarize to see if I got all this? You're saying
that there may be a 60% drop in oil supply that will become evident about
the 3rd week of January. And this drop may last years due to Y2K
computer problems at everything from oil wells to refineries?

(DD1stLight) Yes. Add to that problems when/if a system that is down-hole
noncompliant. A system that is physically located several hundred or
thousand feet below the surface and is totally not accessible, and
therefore cannot easily be fixed.

(GregCaton) Were they really that stupid ????

(DD) give him a cigar, yes. Redrill IF you can, but it is not possible to
redrill many and get production again.

(Hylands) Greg, some of the natural gas wells up here in Alberta are dug
20,000 feet down

(GregCaton) DD1 ) And these deep wells do NOT have manual overrides?

(DD) not stupid, maybe ignorant - scariest thing i am seeing is some of
the simplified assumptions that so many are making in remediation
analysis

(Ryker`) It comes down to short term profits. If they can drill the
well and start making money immediately, that's all they were worried
about... Didn't want to spend time to redesign systems to make them
compliant for an event that was years in the future...

(DD) EPA requires that the wells have RAMS - that is a great big snap
valve that closes shut if there is a problem with the well that
would/could make it unsafe/blowout etc. EPA required immediate response
and actually very few people ever really gave it much thought

(y2kworried) The implications are staggering, our whole economy is based
on automobile and truck transportation, and planes, and ships, and
locomotives

(DD) Even hydro electric is totally reliant upon large amounts of very
specific lubricant

(GregCaton) How many in upper management fully grasp / accept what you
are now saying ?

(DD1stLight) Some. Most are like most people. They really do not want to
look at the possibilities. Can't say I blame them. It's not like one guy
knows the ins and outs of how his product is drilled, pumped, refined,
distributed, etc.

(GregCaton) Is there the slightest doubt in your mind that this all
equates to a depression more serious than the 30's ?

(DD) NONE. I am in a very unique position in that I am consultant to
most majors and many minors and have been around so long I can get info

(GregCaton) How is it then that you would have a broad interdisciplinary
overview... but few others in the board room would ???

(DD) Because I am a mean old lady who is more likely to kick someone on
IT than kiss IT so I work strictly on contract. Also have more degrees
than carter has pills and am known in the industry. I do everything from
facilitate the sales of major companies to figure out how to get around a
bottleneck at a refinery.

(GregCaton) Alright. (WIPING THE BLACKBOARD CLEAN..) Let's start fresh
and talk about how this impacts the Inflation vs. Deflation arguments.
Where do you stand on this issue? Inflationary Depression? Deflationary
Depression? A complete economic collapse?

(DD) most of the old stripper wells have been plugged, few left really
but no the refineries are in worse shape than the wells

(Hylands) No commercial airplanes. Think about that for a minute.

(DD) we need to remember that $ is only worth anything because we all
agree it is, when we stop agreeing we call it inflation or deflation.
Most workers I talk to think it is only this plant that has problems.
Another example of ostrich syndrome which is very understandable from a
psychological viewpoint.

(GregCaton) .... feeling like we really ARE the first people in thefirst
Titanic lifeboat.

(Hylands) Exactly my point.

(GregCaton) Amazing when you consider than 99.8% of the people in
society reading this would think we're all psychotic.

(Hylands) Airplanes, trains, transport trucks, ships, electrical
generation, you name it

(GregCaton) How much have the electric utilities done to stockpile gas,
oil, coal, etc.

(DD) best I can find is that most are attempting to store an average of 3
weeks supply Some, like TU in east Texas, have their own coal mines and
rails to them, but only have the ability to store about 4 weeks of
lubricants

(GregCaton) So then the SHTF in late January?

(DD) Yes

(y2kworried) What is even more important: that oil is the basis of food
production

(Hylands) oil is the basis of electricity, thus it is the basis for just
about everything

(DD) most fertilizer is made from natural gas condensates. I have looked
and looked for years now at every industry i can see becoming more
dependant upon oil/gas and computers. NOT less. Tenneco and Chevron
actually came clean on their last year's Q10 third quarter reports and
stated they expect to have about 30% production available after Y2K

(DD) i keep hearing about the 'national grid system' which is a joke.
texas has its own grid NO major AC connection to any other and only 2
main DC's for ballast

(Hylands) There are four main grids in North America

(Alwyn) San Onofre Nuclear Plant here sounded the all clear today
...forty people, three years, $10 million and repaired or replaced over
300 components./

(DD) The Texas grid is totally integrated, all have it or none have
it, not possible to 'island' anywhere in Texas

(GregCaton) DD1 ) So... let's define what "10" means. In your mind
will this cause the collapse of the U.S. Government as we know it?

(DD1stLight) government as we now know it, may well be. Some form of
government will remain though. It is why the very best minds I know have
already stopped taking contracts or if employee just did not show up for
work one day and left no forwarding address

(Ryker`) Greg? Have you risen your estimate to a 10 now?

(GregCaton) If you live in Watts... it will be a 10. But if you're a
self-sufficient farmer living in Colorado ... it might be a 3 as far as
you're concerned. Don't know.

(DD) You got it, Greg. That's why I opt for 8.5 is a mean

(Hylands) Greg, how many people do you think depend on electricity, even
rural farmers?

(GregCaton) Hylands - There are some farmers who have only had power
since the '30's ... I think that farmers, with or without oil, are
steeped in a tradition of hardship and "having to make due". "A country
boy can survive..."

(Hylands) Exactly, how many? I'll bet it's not many. Now, we're pretty
smart, so we'll figure a lot of stuff out, but still...

(Hylands) How many farms can irrigate their crops with a hand well pump?
How many farmers today can grow their crops without bought seeds,
fertilizer, diesel tractors, etc?

(DD) Few, and mules and oxen are a lost art to most and not available
or trained etc. not like a tractor you can't just build one you have to
grow it . And those horses are for the most part "pets" LOL

(Alwyn) They are pets, in the sense that they don't pull a plow. But,
they are a resource.

(GregCaton) I'd say enough farms for about 10% of the people to make it.

(Hylands) Greg, that's about my figure, 10% . Yep, can you be
sustainable with water, food, heat, and sanitation. People, without clean
drinking water, will die

(GregCaton) So that's the task: be one out of the ten. (New slogan for
the Marine Corp): "We're looking for a few good one out of tens!"

(DD) for goodness sakes folks DO NOT just take my word for all this, do
your own research, there is plenty available on the net for you to see,
just go to the real sites etc., check out the defense departments
contingency plan figures for oil/gas. I think the biggest killers besides
cholera, typhus, thyphoid and diptheria and dysentery. Will be pure old
culture shock

(Hylands) This is why I think a 2 year food supply is a wise idea

(DD) I have to thank Hylander for inviting me to this room, it is good
to be able to talk to people who have more than 2 brain cells to rub
together and play with and are not caught into immobility by fear etc. *
Hylands takes a bow

(Alwyn) Ryker...you can go low-tech and cheap on the purifier...Pur has
systems for $30 that do everything a Kaytadn (sp) does for $300.

(Hylands) Alwyn, problem with the PUR is it won't do 20,000 gallons, and
the Katadyn will

(GregCaton) DD1 )) Allow me to give you some perspective. Speaking
personally, we're got two cisterns, a water well, (motor and manual)...
24 solar panels (75 watts each) within a complete solar system...
protection (won't elaborate) ... ham radio equipment (I'm an Extra Class
holder)..... who would do this if they didn't take Y2K seriously?

(DD) the RAMs located down-hole in the wells, we know that there are a
goodly number that are NOT ok, when they malfunction we know (by actual
testing) that they close the RAMs which cannot be reopened, cannot get to
them to reset etc.

(Gary_Seattle) but Katadyn might not handle all of the stuff pur gets rid
of

(Hylands) DD1, I'm really glad you came, and hereby invite you back
again every Tuesday, same time

(DD) well we have cisterns, well, food etc. (actually can feed about 300+
people for about 3 months) but not much in the way of electricity
generating, no radios etc.

(DD) one of the scariest assumptions i see people making is "it's analog,
look no further" SHEEEEEESH!!! Many date sensitive chips were used in
nondate related places because they were cheap, available, and did the
job

(Aubrey) I've got a First Need deluxe and a simple Pur pitcher that will
take out everything up to virus size particles


(continued here)



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